Preview: UFC 319 ‘Du Plessis vs. Chimaev’

Welterweights

Carlos Prates (21-7, 4-1 UFC) vs. Geoff Neal (16-6, 8-4 UFC)

BETTING ODDS: Prates (-250), Neal (+205)

The UFC did well to rebook what should be an entertaining scrap—it was scratched from UFC 314 in April—with some solid stakes at welterweight. Prates looked decent in a 2023 win on Dana White’s Contender Series that earned him a contract, but the extent of his breakout in 2024 came as a surprise, as “The Nightmare” ended the year as one of the UFC’s top rising welterweights. Prates can be a bit choosy at times, but he has done an excellent job of doing more with less, using his tools—almost completely in the striking phase—to tear through his opponents as soon as he finds some reads. The best example of Prates’ simple but effective approach is probably his June 2024 win over Charles Radtke, who gets most of his best work done with a left hook. Prates simply grabbed his left arm before crumpling Radtke to the mat with a knee to the body. From there, Prates took apart Jingliang Li and Neil Magny to end his campaign before getting his first assignment of 2025 in a main event spot against Ian Garry. It was an interesting test. The Irishman’s win was clearly a disappointing result from the Prates side, as Garry was able to mix offense and defense to consistently neutralize the Brazilian’s momentum. However, it was certainly a performance that could have gone worse, as Prates hung tough for five rounds and nearly found a finish in the latter stages. Neal should be a more straightforward test, as “Handz of Steel” will likely meet Prates on his own terms.

A graduate of the first season of the Contender Series, Neal has proven to have a clear ceiling but a high floor, owing to the hand speed that has become his calling card. Given the right matchup where an opponent will let him tee off, Neal can cause a massive amount of damage—enough to alter some careers. However, his one-track approach means that high-level opposition can usually refuse Neal’s invitations to trade and maneuver around his power to find a victory. In a general sense, Neal has a basic enough game that Prates should be able to find some reads and start implementing his violent ideas. However, given that Prates does a lot of his work with aggression, it’s also easy to see him walking into something unexpected considering the combination of power and speed that Neal brings to the table. The read is that Prates can take this fight over eventually but that this winds up as a war that should be one of the highlights of this card. The pick is Prates via decision.

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Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Pico vs. Murphy
Prates vs. Neal
Page vs. Cannonier
Asakura vs. Elliott
The Prelims